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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.